Expression of Interest (EoI): Trend Analysis of the Nigeria Debt Stock, 2020 to 2024

Background on the Governance Programme:

ActionAid Nigeria is an affiliate member of the ActionAid International Federation with footprints in over 70 countries across the globe. As an anti-poverty non-governmental organisation, we have been working in Nigeria to combat poverty and promote social justice across the 36 states of the federation and the FCT for over 20 years. It works in solidarity with people living in poverty and exclusion to achieve social justice, gender equality and poverty eradication towards achieving a just, equitable and sustainable world in which every person enjoys the right to a life of dignity, freedom from poverty and all forms of oppression.

Within the AAN’s Country Strategy Paper, 2024–2034, the governance programme focuses on enhancing transparency, accountability, and inclusivity in governance structures and processes. The current political and economic landscape in Nigeria presents both opportunities and challenges in achieving these objectives. With increasing demands for effective public finance management and inclusive policymaking, the programme strives to promote accountability and transparency, through which the people are empowered to hold governments and corporate bodies accountable for their stewardship and ultimately build people's power. It drives open, inclusive and accountable decision-making spaces at different levels of the polity.

To deliver its mandate, the governance engagement focuses on six key thematic areas, namely.

1. Strengthening Democracy, Civic Participation, and Human Rights Advocacy.
2. Promoting Fiscal Justice, Equitable Public Finance, and Public Service Delivery
3. Ensuring Access to Quality Healthcare and Education
4. Combating Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Building Resilient Communities
5. Advancing Climate Justice and Environmental Governance
6. Strengthening Digital Governance and Civic Technology

A key priority of ActionAid Nigeria’s Governance work is promoting fiscal justice, equitable public finance, and public service delivery in Nigeria through institutional engagement including budget transparency, effective debt management and participatory approaches. As part of efforts to drive this priority, AAN had previously conducted various in-depth fiscal and budgetary analyses. This research has been instrumental in shaping advocacy engagements with the government, IMF, and World Bank. Given the continued borrowing trend, updating this analysis is crucial to provide current data and insights for evidence-based advocacy. This second edition builds on AAN’s previous interventions (Trend Analysis of Nigeria’s Debt Stock, 2010-2020) on public finance and accountability, deepening our understanding of how rising public debt may constrain effective, gender-responsive public service delivery and exacerbate poverty.

The findings of this research are also used by citizens, the private sector and civil society organisations as knowledge products and advocacy documents to technically support and provide inputs around the PFM cycle. The advantages of such wider citizen participation are enormous, eg. improvement in service delivery, efficiency, and effectiveness of governance, enabled context for private sector-driven growth, enhanced equity and inclusiveness, improved citizens' access to public decision-making, etc. 

An analysis of Nigeria’s national budgets over the last 5 years, portrays a continued upward movement, for example, the national budget moved from 21.83 trillion in 2023 to 28.78 trillion in 2024. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024, Nigeria's public debt stock which includes external and domestic debt stood at N121. 67 trillion in Q1 from N97. 34 trillion in Q4 of 2023, indicating a growth rate of 24.99% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. It is projected that by 2025, Nigeria's public debt may hit a new high before the end of the first quarter of 2025, jumping to N150 trillion. Unfortunately, with the dwindling revenue caused by fluctuating oil prices and exchange rates, non-remittances, leakages etc, there is the tendency that borrowing will continue elaborately in 2025 to fund the budget. 

This is a major concern as the debt profile keeps pilling, it closes the fiscal space for effective gender public service delivery, thus exacerbating poverty and inequality. As reported by the Global Bank, the poverty rate in Nigeria increased to 46% in 2023 representing 104 million poor Nigerians,

Purpose

Given the increasing concerns over Nigeria’s mounting public debt, this Trend Analysis seeks to document the buildup of the country’s debt stock from 2020 to 2024 and examine its implications for national development. The analysis will offer insights to strengthen ActionAid Nigeria’s advocacy efforts, inform the work of other civil society organisations, and guide policy engagements with government and international financial institutions

Specific Objectives:

1. To provide comprehensive data and analyses on Nigeria’s rising public debt to empower civil society organisations (CSOs), citizens, and other stakeholders (e.g., IMF, World Bank, AfDB) in advocating for transparent and accountable debt management.
2. To ascertain the capacity of the state to deliver public goods and services amid rising debt, highlighting how debt repayments may affect social sector funding.
3. To determine the utilisation of the borrowed funds, identify any evidence of value for money or infrastructure gains, and highlight areas of apparent waste or inefficiency.
4. To review existing laws, regulations, and institutional arrangements guiding Nigeria’s public debt management, identifying gaps in compliance and opportunities to strengthen governance and accountability

Deliverables.

The deliverables of the consultant are outlined below.

1. A detailed comparative trend analysis of debt stock in Nigeria, covering the period 2020 to 2024 featuring graphics/tables, contextual narratives, and references.
2. A factsheet graphically illustrated with info graphs showcasing Nigeria’s debt stock

Scope of Work;

The Consultant is expected to undertake the following tasks below, to arrive at the deliverables:

1. Conduct a Desk Review to make a detailed comparative and trend analysis of Nigeria's debt incidences over the period, 2020 to 2024.
2. Classify into sectors upon which specific loan contractual agreement was entered by the relevant authority and what was obtained.
3. Subject to the availability of information, Given the specific loans obtained by the governments, determine the amount or the material benefits in terms of infrastructures allocated to different geographical zones, states, senatorial zones and LGAs if possible.
4. Subject to the availability of information, Demonstrate the dimension and pattern of inherent inequality in the loan allocations with reference to the geography of Nigeria.
5. Provide practical policy alternatives to the government for Domestic Resource Mobilisation (DRM), to cut down on borrowings. Also suggesting measures to enhance transparency, plug revenue leakages, and strengthen debt oversight mechanisms.

Methodology:

1. The consultant shall work independently through a Desk Review, interviews and survey to gather relevant data.
2. Present the report’s findings at a validation meeting organized by AAN’s team.

Timeline:

The Desk Review analysis and the subsequent report writing are expected to be undertaken within a period of ten (10) working days. 

Required profile for each consultant applying:

The Consultant is expected to have the following qualifications.

• Minimum of master’s degree in development economics, Political Economy, Economics, Public Administration, Statistics, or any related social science disciplines.
• At least 10 years of progressive experience working in the areas of public finance management and analysis, public sector reform and excellent knowledge of the development sector.
• Excellent facilitation, writing and reporting skills.
• Computer literate and able to apply Microsoft Office and other analytical tools efficiently.
• Excellent communication and interpersonal relations skills.
• An excellent team player.
• Company profile

• Evidence of similar previous assignments completed, including at least two references

   

   

Payment:

ActionAid-Nigeria will pay N200,000.00 per day to perform the tasks as described above, for a period of 10 Days, making it N2,000,000.00, payable for the period. Payment shall be paid in Nigerian Naira fee rendered which will be liable to withholding tax of 5% and which will be paid as follows: An initial 50% of the total sum involved is to be paid after the contract has been awarded, while the balance 50% paid upon satisfactory completion and submission of all work done.

Reporting Lines

The consultancy shall be managed by the Governance Programme Specialist, while the final report is to be submitted to the Head of Programmes, who shall approve same.

Application Process

Interested consultant(s) should submit their application via email to procurement.nigeria@actionaid.org with the subject: "Expression of Interest: Trend Analysis of the Nigeria Debt stock, 2020 to 2024.

Note: Only shortlisted vendors will be contacted for the next stage of the procurement process and late submissions will not be considered.

Closing Date: 25th of April 2025.