EOI: Consultancy for Evidence Generation on Breaking the Debt-Climate Trap In Nigeria

ActionAid (AA) Nigeria is an affiliate of ActionAid International, which is a global alliance of organizations working towards achieving a world without poverty and injustice in which every person enjoys the right to a life with dignity. As a large and visible development organization, we work in over 45 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Our expertise lies in community-led approaches to development and working through partnerships with the poor and other grassroots organizations. 

Background 

Nigeria is increasingly caught in a debt–climate trap, where rising public debt constrains investments in climate action, while escalating climate impacts deepen fiscal vulnerabilities. According to the Debt Management Office, debt servicing consumed between 48% and 97% of federal government revenue between 2020 and 2024, leaving limited fiscal space for essential investments in climate adaptation, mitigation, infrastructure, health, education, and social protection. This persistent fiscal pressure is driven by high domestic borrowing costs, exchange rate depreciation, weak domestic revenue mobilisation, and an expanding debt stock. 

At the same time, Nigeria faces escalating climate risks, including recurrent flooding, desertification, coastal erosion, and increasing energy insecurity. Addressing these challenges requires substantial investments in climate resilience, renewable energy, and sustainable infrastructure. However, constrained public finances have resulted in climate priorities being underfunded or delayed. Furthermore, much of the climate finance available to Nigeria is debt-based rather than grant-based, potentially exacerbating existing fiscal pressures. In sectors such as renewable energy, where significant financing gaps remain, externally financed projects may unintentionally increase long-term debt burdens if not aligned with sustainable financing and domestic economic returns. 

This creates a reinforcing cycle in which debt limits climate investment, while climate shocks increase economic losses, reduce government revenues, and drive further borrowing. Higher debt levels also elevate Nigeria's perceived credit risk, increasing borrowing costs and reducing access to affordable finance needed to meet national climate commitments under the Paris Agreement and other sustainable development priorities. 

Despite growing recognition of this challenge, there is limited country-specific evidence that systematically examines the interactions between public debt, climate finance, fiscal policy, and climate resilience in Nigeria. Existing discussions often focus on debt sustainability or climate finance in isolation, providing insufficient evidence to inform integrated policy responses. There is also a need to strengthen the capacity of civil society organizations, policymakers, and other stakeholders to engage with the debt–climate nexus using credible evidence and coordinated advocacy. 

To break this cycle, AAN aims to generate robust policy-relevant evidence to inform fiscal and climate policy reforms that will reduce debt burden and boost climate investments in Nigeria. Strategies include research, communication, stakeholder engagement, advocacy, and capacity development. Ultimately, the evidence will contribute to strengthening national dialogue, informing decision-making, and advancing financing approaches that enable Nigeria to build climate resilience without exacerbating debt vulnerabilities. 

Purpose of the Assignment

The purpose of this assignment is to will conduct in-depth analysis on the interconnectedness of debt justice and climate justice in Nigeria, focusing on fiscal space, climate spending gaps, and debt servicing pressures, and develop at least 3 knowledge products- 

1. In depth analysis highlighting how Nigeria’s debt servicing obligations constrain public investment in climate action, with implications for climate justice and sustainable development financing
   1. Technical report on climate finance flows and debt implications
   2. Policy (Debt – Climate Nexus)
   3. Advocacy paper on debt relief and climate justice integration

Objectives of the Assignment 

The overall objective is to: 

• Generate a robust comprehensive and policy-relevant evidence that demonstrates how Nigeria’s debt burden constrains climate action 
• To provide actionable recommendations that inform fiscal and climate policy reforms that will reduce the debt burden and boost climate investments in Nigeria for campaigns and stakeholder engagement. 

Methodology 

Although the usage of mixed methods and triangulation of sources is encouraged to ensure the credibility of the findings and recommendations presented in the assessment, the consultant is expected to develop a detailed methodology in consultation with the project team. The consultant should engage in quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis in responding to the assessment questions through the following: 

• Desk review: The consultant is expected to review relevant existing documents and reports related to this project 
• Quantitative: The sample size of respondents should be calculated based on statistical considerations, as well as the type of population groups and the number of locations by the baseline service provider. The applied sampling frame and sample size, disaggregated by age and gender, should be included in the inception report, which will be shared and approved by the project implementation team before launching the survey. 
• Qualitative: Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews will be conducted as part of the research. The final number of each will be determined by the population groups and locations covered in the study. 
• Other tools as appropriate. The consultant may recommend other tools relevant to the study. 

Scope of Work

Primary deliverables will include an in-depth analysis of how debt limits climate investment, a technical report on climate finance flows and debt implications, policy briefs on the debt-climate nexus, and a targeted sustainable financing advocacy paper.  

The consultant will: 

1.  Produce High-Quality, Policy-Relevant Research:  The consultant will conduct in-depth analysis on the interconnectedness of debt justice and climate justice in Nigeria, focusing on fiscal space, climate spending gaps, and debt servicing pressures, and develop at least 3 knowledge products-  
2. In-depth analysis highlighting how Nigeria’s debt servicing obligations constrain public investment in climate action, with implications for climate justice and sustainable development financing  
3. Technical report on climate finance flows and debt implications 
4. Policy briefs (Debt – Climate Nexus)  
5. Advocacy paper on debt relief and climate justice integration 
6. Produce simplified communication products on:  
7. The in-depth analysis on the outcome on PowerPoint presentation that will be validated among stakeholders. 
8. 2-pager evidence on the interconnectedness of debt and climate justice 
9. Policy briefs (Debt – Climate Nexus)  
10. Human stories /Case studies 
11. Nigeria’s Debt Audit Snapshot Report 

Key Deliverables

1. In-depth analysis highlighting how Nigeria’s debt servicing obligations constrain public investment in climate action, with implications for climate justice and sustainable development financing  
2. Technical report on climate finance flows and debt implications 
3. Policy briefs (Debt – Climate Nexus)  
4. Advocacy paper on debt relief and climate justice integration 
5. The in-depth analysis on the outcome on PowerPoint presentation that will be validated among stakeholders. 
6. 2-pager evidence on the interconnectedness of debt and climate justice 
7. Human stories /Case studies 
8. Nigeria’s Debt Audit Snapshot Report 

Duration of the Assignment

The consultancy will last thirty (30) days, inclusive of consultations, drafting, validation, and final submission. 

Required Qualifications and Experience

The consultant (she/he) to be recruited should have the following qualifications and experience: 

• An advanced university degree (master’s or PhD preferred) in Economics, Public Finance, Climate Change, Environmental Policy, Public Policy, Political Economy, International Development, or a related discipline.  
• Additional training or certification in climate finance, fiscal policy, debt management, or sustainable development will be an added advantage.  
• A minimum of 10 years' demonstrated experience conducting high-quality policy and applied research in public finance, debt management, climate change, climate finance, development economics, or related fields.  
• Proven experience conducting political economy analysis, policy analysis, and institutional assessments.  
• Strong understanding of Nigeria's public financial management systems, fiscal policy processes, and macroeconomic environment.  
• Experience producing high-quality research reports, policy briefs, and evidence on debt sustainability, climate finance, fiscal governance, sustainable development, or environmental economics will be considered a strong advantage.  
• Technical Knowledge on budget analysis and budget tracking.  
• Engage effectively with government institutions, policymakers, development partners, civil society organizations, academia, financial institutions, and community stakeholders.  
• Rights-based, gender-responsive, and climate justice approaches to development policy.  

Kindly Note:  

• A strong technical knowledge or access to information on public debt management and debt sustainability, Fiscal policy, public expenditure management, domestic resource mobilization. Climate governance., Climate financing, Nigeria's climate policy architecture, Energy Transition Plan, and relevant national strategies frameworks and policies, including the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), will considered a strong advantage.  

Desirable Qualifications 

Preference will be given to consultants who have: 

• Previous experience conducting debt–climate nexus research in Nigeria, Africa, or other developing countries.  
• Experience working with international NGOs, multilateral institutions, or donor-funded programmes.  
• Strong understanding of climate justice, debt justice, and equitable financing frameworks.  
• An established network with relevant Nigerian stakeholders in public finance, climate governance, and development policy.  
• Published peer-reviewed articles, policy papers, or research reports on public finance, climate change, debt sustainability, or related topics. 

The following compliance documents should be submitted:

• Company profile
• CAC registration (CAC 7)
• Tax clearance certificate
• Evidence of previous jobs, especially with INGOs
• Audited accounts (at least 2025)

Submission of Expression of Interest

Please send your expression of interest (detailing your approach to the assignment), evidence of previous work, financial budget and profile/CV in one Microsoft Word document to: procurement.nigeria@actionaid.org on or before 18th August 2026.  Women are advised to apply. 

Applications should be titled: 

Consultancy – Evidence generation on Breaking the Debt-Climate Trap in Nigeria  

Only shortlisted applicants will be contacted. 

Following the closure of the EOI period, applicants who do not receive communication within two weeks should consider, we have proceeded with the process.