EOI: Political Economy Analysis, Assessment of Government Expenditure (2021 – 2025), and Development of Dashboards on Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava and Dairy Value Chains in Nigeria.

ActionAid (AA) Nigeria is an affiliate of ActionAid International, which is a global alliance of organizations working towards achieving a world without poverty and injustice in which every person enjoys the right to a life with dignity. As a large and visible development organization, we work in 45 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and America. Our expertise lies in community-led approaches to development and working through partnerships with the poor and other grassroot organizations. 

 Background

The Scaling Up of Public Investments in Agriculture (SUPIA2) Project implemented by the Food and Agriculture team of ActionAid Nigeria is designed to promote and scale up public investments in agriculture both political and budget commitment to drive inclusive, lasting agricultural transformation at the national and state level. The project also seeks to catalyse increased quantity and improved quality of public investment in agriculture through enhanced citizen participation in evidence-based policy making to increase the productivity and well-being of smallholder farmers.

Nigeria’s agricultural value chains continue to experience persistently low and inconsistent public investment. This underinvestment has contributed to high post‑harvest losses estimated at approximately 40% nationally, reducing farmer incomes, exacerbating market volatility, and increasing the country's food import bill as domestic production fails to meet rising demand.

Despite the economic and food security potential of the Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava, and Dairy value chains, public expenditure across these sectors remains low, uneven, and poorly sustained. Agricultural spending continues to prioritize a narrow set of crop subsectors, while systemic challenges persist, including limited infrastructure, inadequate extension services, weak value‑chain coordination, and insufficient research and development funding.

Sector-specific gaps illustrate the scale of the challenge:

• Cassava: Nigeria spends an estimated $600 million annually on imported cassava derivatives due to inadequate processing capacity, limited mechanization, and inconsistent funding for disease control and improved varieties.
• Dairy: With public spending in this value chain notably low, the country imports over $1.5 billion in milk and dairy products each year. Constraints include low on-farm productivity, weak cold-chain infrastructure, limited access to water, and minimal investment in pastoralist support systems.
• Aquaculture: The country faces an annual fish deficit of about 2.5 million metric tons, driven by poor hatchery capacity, high input costs, and inadequate research and extension funding.
• Rice: Nigeria continues to spend significant foreign exchange on rice imports to bridge domestic supply gaps despite being one of Africa’s largest rice producers. Nigeria’s estimated annual import bill is $2 billion due to inadequate investments.  

These gaps undermine Nigeria’s agricultural competitiveness and put pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Addressing them requires more strategic, well-targeted, and accountable public expenditure. This consultancy aims to provide evidence to spur and guide such investments and speed up budget releases through a comprehensive business case political economy analysis and expenditure assessment.

Objective 

To conduct a business case political economy analysis and an assessment of government expenditure (2021–2025) at the national and 3 states for the Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava, and Dairy value chains, and to develop simplified dashboards and policy briefs that translate findings into actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.

Scope of Work

The consultant will be responsible for the following tasks:

• Conduct political economy analysis and assess government’s expenditure (2021-2025) at National level and 3 states on Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava and Dairy Value Chains.
• Conduct a comprehensive review and analysis of federal and 3 states budget allocations, and actual spending for Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava, and Dairy value chains.

• Develop dashboards that visualize expenditure performance patterns (2021-2025) on Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava and Dairy Value Chains from the analysis (Federal and 3 States)

• Prepare a comprehensive analytical report synthesizing business case political economy analysis insights and expenditure findings.
• Develop four policy briefs (one for each value chain), summarizing findings and policy recommendations.

Methodology

The methodology includes comprehensive desk reviews, analysis of relevant documents, and detailed budget, expenditure performance analysis, and business case political economy analysis for each value chain.

 Deliverables

1. Inception Report with methodology, work plan, and tools.
2. Business Case Political Economy Analysis Report (national and state-level insights).
3. Public Expenditure Assessment (2021–2025) Report.
4. Dashboards for the four value chains.
5. Four Policy Briefs (Aquaculture, Rice, Cassava, Dairy).
6. Final Consolidated Report integrating all components.

Required profile for consultant:

The consultant to be recruited should have the following qualifications and experience:

• Advanced degree in Economics, Agricultural Economics, Public Policy, Development Finance, Economics or related fields.
• Proven track record in political economy analysis for policy influencing and advocacy.
• At least 10–15 years’ experience in budget analysis, public finance, or policy research.
• Proven expertise in agricultural financing, agroecology, or sustainable development financing.
• Strong analytical and quantitative skills, with evidence of similar assignments.
• Experience engaging with government institutions, civil society, and donor partners.
• Excellent writing, presentation, and facilitation skills.
• Evidence of similar assignments conducted in Nigeria (to be provided in the expression of interest).

The following compliance documents submitted with the applications: 

• Company profile
• CAC registration (CAC 7)
• Tax clearance certificate
• Evidence of previous jobs, especially with INGOs
• Audited accounts (at least 2023)

Submission of expression of interest

Please send your expression of interest (detailing your approach to the assignment),  profile/CV and financial budget in one Microsoft Word document to procurement.nigeria@actionaid.org  on or before 29th of June 2026. 

Applications should be titled: Consultancy – Political Economy Analysis and Assessment of Government Expenditure.

Women, youth and Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) are encouraged to apply.

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted for the next stage.